Models and observations to study feedbacks to climate change.

The Climate Feedback Lab at St. Francis Xavier University uses models and observations to study feedbacks to climate change. The primary focus of the lab is developing new climate model components to improve future forecasts of climate change and its impacts on human societies. Current projects include, study the climate impact of Nature Based Carbon Capture, contributions to the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP), exploring the permafrost carbon feedback to climate change, devising a fundamental understanding of the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), improving the representation of plant phenology in climate models, and adding nitrogen and phosphorus cycles to a climate model. See our research page for details.






People



Group Leader

Andrew MacDougall

Associate Professor, Climate & Environment, St. Francis Xavier University

Antigonish, Nova Scotia, Canada B2G 2W5
Phone: 902-867-3614
Email: amacdoug@stfx.ca
Office: 2021 Physical Sciences Complex


Education:

PhD, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, 2014
MSc Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 2010
BSc Hon, Department of Earth Sciences, St. Francis Xavier University.


Project Coordinator

Alyssa Blais

Antigonish, Nova Scotia, Canada B2G 2W5
Email: ablais@stfx.ca
Office: 2021 Physical Sciences Complex


Education:

Masters of Adult Education, StFX (in progress)
Graduate Degree in Administration, Concordia University
BA Psychology, Concordia University


Technical Coordinator

Alex MacIsaac

Email: amacisaa@stfx.ca


Education:

MSc Department of Geography, Concordia University, 2019
BSc, Environment, Concordia University, 2017
BA, Department of English, St. Francis Xavier University, 2012


Post-Doc

Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye

Email: cnzotung@stfx.ca


Education:

PhD, Climate Science, Simon Fraser University, 2021
MSc, Environmental Science, University of Cape Town, 2013
BSc, National University of Rwanda, 2008




Graduate Student

Makcim De Sisto

PhD Candidate


Email: mdesisto@stfx.ca

Project: Modelling the Terrestrial Nitrogen Cycle and Coastal Land-Ocean Nutrient Coupling




Graduate Student

Jaqueline Byukusenge

PhD Student


Email: jbyukuse@stfx.ca

Project: Agricultural management practices as a Nature Based Solution to Climate Change




Research Assistant

Violet Silva

Undergraduate Student

Project Summer 2023: CO2 decline driven desertification following cessation of CO2 emissions.




Research Assistant

Josie Mallett

Undergraduate Student

Project Summer 2022: Regional Marine Trends Following Cessation of CO2 Emissions: What Will Be the Future of Coral Reefs?

Project Summer 2021: Regional Climate Trends Following Cessation of CO2 Emissions




Lab Alumni

Lynsay Spafford

Current Position: Consultant for Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL)


Email: lspaffor@stfx.ca

Project: Remote sensing of leaf phenology and improving global vegetation models




Lab Alumni

Gilles Perrine

Current Position: MSc Student, Flux Lab

Former Position: Research Assistant

Project: Longterm climate impacts of agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions




Lab Alumni

Noah Barrett

Current Position: MSc Student, Institute for Big Data Analytics Institute for Big Data Analytics, Dalhousie University

Former Position: Research Assistant

Project: Technical assistance for ZECMIP




Lab Alumni

Katie Arthur

Current Position: Marketing and Communications Officer, Advancement, StFX

Former Position: Project Coordinator

Opportunities



General Graduate Student Opportunities

If you are interested in graduate studies and your research interests lie within the scope of climate science and Earth system modelling, please send an e-mail inquiry to Dr. Andrew MacDougall and include your CV and transcripts. Inquiries are welcomed from students of a variety of science backgrounds, including Earth sciences, physics, chemistry, biology, applied mathematics, and engineering.


Quantifying the climate benefit of nature-based solutions in Canada

The Climate Feedback lab at St. Francis Xavier University in conjunction with collaborators at Simon Fraser University, Concordia University, and the University of Victoria are seeking 2 MSc students to work on a project quantifying the climate benefit of Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) in Canada starting in September of 2024. Both positions are planned for StFX but could be moved to one of the partner institutions.


MSc Project 1

Peatland management

The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) has recently been upgraded to include a high fidelity soil carbon cycle module. With minor modifications the new module will be able to simulate peatland environments. The module will be used to assess the impacts of climate change on Canada’s peatlands, and northward expansion of agriculture in Canada, as well as to assess the potential climate impacts of peatland restoration in Canada. To apply contact Dr. Andrew MacDougall (amacdoug 'at' stfx.ca)

MSc Project 2

Mineral soil management

The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) has recently been upgraded to include a high fidelity soil carbon cycle module. For this project methods of altering mineral soils to take up more carbon or enhance CO2 sequestrations through weathering will be investigated.

Mabou, NS

Tower 2

St. George, NS

Tower 3

Research






Nature-based solutions to climate change seek to enhance the carbon sequestration potential of natural ecosystems and agricultural systems, while providing co-benefits for biodiversity and food production. However, large-scale alteration of these systems will also induce both physical and biogeochemical changes to the Earth system which may enhance or counteract the climate benefit of carbon sequestration. The Climate Feedback Lab has an interest in evaluating the full climate impact of Nature Based Solutions using Earth system models.




A key assumption in the carbon budget framework is that once CO2 emission cease global temperature will approximately stabilize. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project ( ZECMIP) was a late addition to CMIP6 designed to test this assumption. The Climate Feedback Lab participated in ZECMIP, and lead the initial analysis of the model data and continues to work with the data-set.

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Leaf phenology, the timing of climate-induced leaf life cycle events, is predicted to shift in mid to high latitude regions with warmer spring temperatures, influencing the precision of leaf lifespan representation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. We are monitoring the leaf phenology of boreal tree species distributed across dynamic climate transition zones in Nova Scotia using solar powered remote digital repeat photography stations.




Earth System Models (ESMs) are climate models which include a representation of the global carbon cycle. To develop these models further representations of Nitrogen and Phosphorus cycles are being added to ESMs. The Climate Feedback Lab is developing nitrogen and phosphorus components for the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model. We are currently looking for a graduate student to take over this project.

Publications



MacDougall et al., 2021:

Estimated climate impact of replacing agriculture as the primary food production system

MacDougall, A.H., J. Rogelj, P. Withey, 2021: Estimated climate impact of replacing agriculture as the primary food production system, Environmental Research Letters, 16, 125010.

Nzotungicimpaye et al., 2021:

WETMETH: A new wetland methane model for implementation in Earth system models

C.-M. Nzotungicimpaye*, A. H. MacDougall, J. R. Melton, C. C. Treat, M.Eby, L. F.W. Lesack, K. Zickfeld, 2021: WETMETH: A new wetland methane model for implementation in Earth system models, Geoscientific Model Development, 14, 6215-6240.

Spafford and MacDougall, 2021:

Validation of Terrestrial Biogeochemistry in CMIP6 Earth System Models: A Review

Spafford L.*, A.H. MacDougall, 2021: Validation of Terrestrial Biogeochemistry in CMIP6 Earth System Models: A Review, Geoscientific Model Development 14, 5863-5889

MacDougall 2021:

Estimated effect of the permafrost carbon feedback on the zero emissions commitment to climate change

MacDougall, A.H., 2021: Estimated effect of the permafrost carbon feedback on the zero emissions commitment to climate change, Biogeosciences, 18, 4937–4952

Matthews et al. 2021:

A new framework for understanding and quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

H.D. Matthews, K.B. Tokarska, J. Rogelj, P.M. Forster, K. Haustein, C.J. Smith, A.H. MacDougall, N.Mengis, S. Sippel, and Reto Knutti, 2021: A new framework for understanding and quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget, Communications Earth and Environment 2, 7 doi:10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9

Spafford et al. 2021:

Spectral subdomains and prior estimation of leaf structure improves PROSPECT inversion on reflectance or transmittance alone

Spafford L.*, G. le Maire, A. H. MacDougall, F. de Boissieu and J.B. Féret, 2021: Spectral subdomains and prior estimation of leaf structure improves PROSPECT inversion on reflectance or transmittance alone, Remote Sensing of Environment, 252, 112176.

Matthews et al. 2020:

Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy

Matthews H. D., K. B Tokarska, Z. R. J. Nicholls, J. Rogelj, J. G Canadell, P. Friedlingstein, T. L Frölicher, P. M Forster, N. P Gillett, T. Ilyina, R. B Jackson, C. D Jones, C. Koven, R. Knutti, A. H MacDougall, M. Meinshausen, N. Mengis, R. Séférian, K.Zickfeld, 2020: Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy, Nature Geoscience, 13, 769-779.

Mengis et al. 2020:

Evaluation of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model version 2.10 (UVic ESCM 2.10)

N. Mengis, D.P. Keller, A.H. MacDougall, M. Eby, N. Wright, K.J. Meissner, A. Oschlies, A. Schmittner, H.D. Matthews, K. Zickfeld, 2020: Evaluation of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model version 2.10 (UVic ESCM 2.10), Geoscientific Model Development, 13, 4183–4204.

MacDougall et al. 2020:

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the zero emission commitment from CO2

NMacDougall, A.H., T.L. Frölicher, C.D. Jones, J. Rogelj, H.D. Matthews, K. Zickfeld, V.K. Arora, N.J. Barrett*, V. Brovkin, F.A. Burger, M. Eby, A.V. Eliseev, T. Hajima, P.B. Holden, A. Jeltsch-Thömmes, C. Koven, L. Menviel, M. Michou, I.I. Mokhov, A. Oka, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, G. Shaffer, A. Sokolov, K. Tachiiri, J. Tjiputra, A. Wiltshire, T. Ziehn, 2020: Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the zero emission commitment from CO2, Biogeosciences, 17, 2987-3016.

Spafford and MacDougall 2020:

Quantifying the probability distribution function of the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions

Spafford L.*, A.H. MacDougall, 2020: Quantifying the probability distribution function of the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Environmental Research Letters, 15, 034044, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7b

Jones et al. 2019:

The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions

Jones, C. D., Frölicher, T. L., Koven, C., MacDougall, A. H., Matthews, H. D., Zickfeld, K., Rogelj, J., Tokarska, K. B., Gillett, N., Ilyina, T., Meinshausen, M., Mengis, N., Séférian, R., and Eby, M., 2019 The Zero Emission Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions, Geoscientific Model Development, 12, 4375-4385, doi: 0.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019

MacDougall, A.H., 2019:

Limitations of the 1% experiment as the benchmark idealized experiment for carbon cycle intercomparison in C4MIP, Geoscientific Model Development

MacDougall, A.H., 2019: Limitations of the 1% experiment as the benchmark idealized experiment for carbon cycle intercomparison in C4MIP, Geoscientific Model Development, 12, 597–611, doi: 10.5194/gmd-12-597-2019

McGuire et al. 2018:

Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change

McGuire, AD, DM. Lawrence, C Koven, JS Clein, E Burke, G Chen, E Jafarov, AH MacDougall, S Marchenko, D Nicolsky, S Peng, A Rinke, P Ciais, Is Gouttevin, DJ Hayes, D Ji, G Krinner, JC Moore, V Romanovsky, C Schädel, K Schaefer, EAG Schuur and Q Zhuang, 2018: Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change, PNAS, 115, 3882–3887, doi/10.1073/pnas.1719903115

MacDougall, A.H., 2017:

The oceanic origin of path-independent carbon budgets

MacDougall, A.H., 2017: The oceanic origin of path-independent carbon budgets, Scientific Reports, 7, 10373, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-10557-x.

MacDougall, A.H., H. Beltrami, 2017:

Impact of deforestation on subsurface temperature profiles: implications for the borehole paleoclimate record.

MacDougall, A.H., H. Beltrami, 2017: Impact of deforestation on subsurface temperature profiles: implications for the borehole paleoclimate record. Environmental Research Letters, 12, 074014.

MacDougall, A.H., N.C. Swart, R. Knutti, 2017:

The uncertainty in the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions arising from the uncertainty in physical climate parameters.

MacDougall, A.H., N.C. Swart, R. Knutti, 2017: The uncertainty in the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions arising from the uncertainty in physical climate parameters. Journal of Climate, 30, 813–827, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0205.1.

MacDougall, A.H., 2016:

Permafrost Carbon: Catalyst for deglaciation.

MacDougall, A.H., 2016: Permafrost Carbon: Catalyst for deglaciation. Nature Geoscience (New & Views), 9, 648–649, doi:10.1038/ngeo2802

Stay up to date with the Climate Feedback Lab



Andrew Writes for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists!

Andrew recently wrote an article for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists explaining the potential climate impact of replacing agriculture with bacilliculture. Read more below! …


Lynsay Makes National News!

Lynsay recently took The National on a tour of our field sites, to teach the nation about the impact of climate warming on Fall Colours. Check out the segment below! …